will, don't "buy" a dog, just go the shelter and adopt one :-) (though cats are much lower maintenance)

Now, that's entertainment! One quibble: In the section where Kerry was talking about German women "all saying" they wanted two kids, while the birth rate hovers around 1.3 kids/woman, isn't it the case that probably a lot of women who want two kids in fact have two kids, and the average is driven down by women who don't want any? Or just one, for that matter. I don't like statements like "all saying," obviously. One moment of weirdness: When Will was discussing his dinner with Francis Fukayama, he mentioned the horrific thought of Bill Clinton living to for 250 years and never giving up power. Kerry responded that she wasn't worried about a perpetual Bill Gates. Does this indicate that Kerry has such feelings of aversion for Clinton that she can't even hear (or speak) his name? Or is it that her real bogeyman is Bill Gates? Good luck with the move, you two. Going to the IC?

Quoting razib: will, don't "buy" a dog, just go the shelter and adopt one :-) (though cats are much lower maintenance)

Second both of those emotions.

Good luck on the creative efforts, Kerry.

yes, the frequency distribution of fertility does matter, and does vary. i've blogged about this re: the difference between germany and italy:
http://scienceblogs.com/gnxp/2006/02...on_at_work.php (around the same expectation, but germany has a higher variance)

razib: Thanks for the data-based back-up. And hey! A stealth celebrity blogger, right here in our little forums! Nice! Have you considered adding your blog's URL to your sig? Or at least adding it to your profile? Can't let PZ and CZ get all the traffic.

LOL. thanks, nearly choked on my wine. i guess in a reality TV world we've downwardly defined celebrity that far.... in any case, i'll look into the sig thing. i signed on to this mostly to heckle reihan, will, and cast aspersion's at matt yglesias' hygiene (though that's kind of getting to be fruit that hangs too low i guess).

Quoting razib: LOL. thanks, nearly choked on my wine. i guess in a reality TV world we've downwardly defined celebrity that far....

No, no, no. A SciBlogger is waaaaaaay above a reality TV shlub.

in any case, i'll look into the sig thing. i signed on to this mostly to heckle reihan, will, and cast aspersion's at matt yglesias' hygiene (though that's kind of getting to fruit that hangs too low i guess).

In his own defense, Matt did shave off his beard recently. Or are you saying that it's a good thing that BH.tv only transmits two of the five channels of sensory information?

just a note: be cautious about fertility rate statistics from third world countries in terms of the specific number. a cousin of mine who is a bangladeshi economist told me that he knows that many bangladeshi books are a bit cooked. granted, i don't deny the trend line....

Kerry's article, Who Owns Your Body Parts?, is quite good. I will point out one way in which you (or your estate) can get compensated for your lifeless carcass: donate it to a medical school. Most med schools handle the cost of cremation after the students have finished, which means you're saving several hundred bucks, at least. It's also a good thing to do. According to my mother, who got interested in this while looking for material for her column, med schools face a chronic shortage of cadavers. I can only imagine that the tissue market that Kerry describes has made matters worse. She signed up to donate her body, my father did, too, and I plan to do the same. Unless someone makes me a better offer in the meantime, of course.

Quoting razib: just a note: be cautious about fertility rate statistics from third world countries in terms of the specific number. a cousin of mine who is a bangladeshi economist told me that he knows that many bangladeshi books are a bit cooked. granted, i don't deny the trend line....

Did you cousin say what the interest was in fudging the numbers?

Good luck on the move you two! I will have a similar following-academic move soon... Also natalism is a timely topic for me, a beloved family member is reading all kinds of "While Europe Slept" books etc. about Muslims conquering/ending Europe and they're kind of impossible to reason with but you've given me some more info to work with. Just a tangent rant about "While Europe Slept" and maybe "The End of Europe" they didn't even have sources and would like quote one dude saying "we're taking over Europe" without explaining why/how said dude matters. And of course you can find people who say that (of every ethnicity). Annoying stuff.

moyergeo: I think the Final Battle is going to be between the Muslims and the Mormons.

the same incentives which operate when you give performance pay to teachers based on student improvement. funding agencies like to see that their dollars are making a difference.

She signed up to donate her body, my father did, too, and I plan to do the same.

Unless someone makes me a better offer in the meantime, of course.

Make sure your wife doesn't let the wrong people in the house, like in the organ donation sketch in Monty Python's The Meaning of Life!

This diavlog underscores even more why that Carl Zimmer's failed diavlog on cultural evolution was such a missed opportunity. I'm just not sanguine about fiscal policy counteracting natalist policies. There's this swirl of neolithic, agricultural and modern urban cultures that humanity has yet to transcend. Two points from ROK: 1. Foreign brides: South Korean men from agricultural villages are resorting to junkets to find Vietnamese brides, because they're too poor to attract South Korean women. There's a banner down the hill from my street I resist ripping down, with a smiling pubescent girl's face, that advertises these trips., and another billboard on the side of a tall building across from the city's premier hotel and department store. If Seoul slashed fiscal incentives to have children, or choked off these junkets through visa controls, I'd expect these guys to riot (well, some already are rioting about their farms). 2. Across the street, this bastard (and he is an illegitimate son of his rich father's lechery) and wife keep having children even though they have these horrific fights replete with screaming, smashing, and hitting. She's from a poor family, and, according to her, had no idea her husband was

razib: Thanks. I might have guessed that, I suppose. But then I'd just have had to ask for confirmation.

Quoting Baltimoron: Make sure your wife doesn't let the wrong people in the house, like in the organ donation sketch in Monty Python's The Meaning of Life!

Heh. I think I've passed the danger zone for being the target of organleggers. Liver and lungs, anyway. In all seriousness, I do have to say that Kerry's article amazed me in describing how many other body parts have become valuable. Especially the skin -- Buffalo Bill has gone mainstream! I remember back in the day when it was fashionable to repeat the factoid that the human body was only worth sixty-eight cents, or whatever it was.

seek knowledge event unto bangladesh :-)

Will's conversion. Great program, as usual. The discussion of gender was really fascinating. I don't know how much I buy into the retirement community in Arizona abandoning their previous affiliations and loyalties (steelworkers, teachers, nurses) in favor of a "retiree" identity that's suddenly more susceptible to xenophobia and NIMBYism regarding the expanding economy. Seems to me that sensibilities shaped by being a teacher, a union member, a Vietnam veteran, an aging hippie or all of the above are pretty deep and abiding.

Quoting Wonderment: I don't know how much I buy into the retirement community in Arizona abandoning their previous affiliations and loyalties (steelworkers, teachers, nurses) in favor of a "retiree" identity that's suddenly more susceptible to xenophobia and NIMBYism regarding the expanding economy. Seems to me that sensibilities shaped by being a teacher, a union member, a Vietnam veteran, an aging hippie or all of the above are pretty deep and abiding.

Probably there are any number of examples to support your thinking, but I do think there is something to the idea of a "retirement community mindset." I'm pretty sure school tax increases aren't going to be wildly supported, for example. I'd expect the same thing for attitudes about any program whose payoff wouldn't be realized fairly quickly. And there is no doubt that a selling point of some senior communities is a prohibition on children living there. Visits okay, but young whippersnapper, don't let the sun set on you in this town. It is my impression that old people who aren't prone to this sort of thinking are the ones who resist going to retirement communities, and hate it when they finally have no choice.

Scapbooking reminds of a funny episode of the now dead Dead Like Me.

... And it does seem to be a developing theme as evidenced by the last two Free Will episodes. http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/123...8&out=00:56:14 I'm not in agreement with Will about the displaced status competition. It's a nice theory, but it doesn't square with the typical behavior of the majority of parents.
The doting and excessive scrap-booking exists even for career oriented mothers. Especially in middle to upper middle income environments. I think his sisters point about experiencing and cherishing the original moment instead of obsessively chronicling everything gets to the heart of the matter. Very zen.
Kerry jokingly but maybe knowingly remarked that Will's sister is an outlier. My experience confirms this point.
Pride and guilt seem to be the impetus for capturing every Kodak moment. The peer pressure from other parents surely. And anticipation of guilt that would manifest if someday the kids ask about videos or scrapbooks. Most likely though is the pride that merely documenting your child's existence provides. But most parents fail to recognize that the feeling doesn't transcend immediate blood relatives. I always thought myself somewhat the exception for having little desire to "capture" for posterity what I wanted

But seriously, You'll probably have to kowtow to the New Pioneer Co-op, but Hy-Vee is really a great (with respectable selection ((coming from a New Yorker))) midwestern grocery store chain, and their prices are much better than the Co-op. Atlas' salads are alright, but the best dining is at the Motley Cow or One Twenty Six. The most amazing monster cookies in the world come from Cookies 'N More in the Old Capitol Mall. And Riverside Theatre sucks. Don't get suckered into going to anything there.

In this diavlog Kerry asks (paraphrasing) how we came to decide that "replacement level" birthrates are good and desirable things. On an abstract level, I have no qualms with any of her arguments. But demographic arguments aren't abstract, and they don't involve theoretical concepts of right and wrong, or accepted norms. If Jews or Catholics stopped having children, I wouldn't expect Judaism or Catholicism to last much longer; I don't think it a safe strategy to rely solely on converts. Just ask the Shakers. Similarly, if free people stop having children, and unfree people continue to breed at rapid rates, I expect the scales to tip globally in favor of less freedom. I don't believe western-style liberalism can rely on conversions, either; witness the variety of western born-and-bred citizens recruited at radical mosques, etc. Assimilation is not a fool-proof thing (and in any event we're largely abandoning the notion that it's even a good thing). So while I agree with you that no one should be forced to have a child, etc., and that the state should stay out of our lives, I also believe Steyn's maxim that "the future belongs to those who show up." Put another way, might does, in fact, make right. Also, I have

Quoting jakebadlands: Also, I have to chuckle a little at the apparent revulsion at "natalism." We are, after all, still creatures whose first instincts are self-preservation and propagation of the species, no?

Yes. But we are also creatures who are smart enough to think about when it might be a good idea to overcome our instincts. There are too many of us, and our excessive numbers are causing us to foul our own nest. So I, too, am revolted by natalist policies. Attempting to outbreed the competition is just going to mean further losses for all of us.

Wow! you are "revolted" by natalist policies? seems like a pretty strong sentiment. Why is it revolting to lower the costs of reproduction so that those that wish to propagate the species and their culture can do so? modern economies have shifted having children from an economic gain to a loss - so why not ameliorate that effect with natalist policies so that people can decide their reproductive future on less economically based factors? plus - contrary to you, will, and kerry - I think kids are neat.

Quoting popcorn_karate: Wow! you are "revolted" by natalist policies? seems like a pretty strong sentiment. Why is it revolting to lower the costs of reproduction so that those that wish to propagate the species and their culture can do so?

Two reasons: I think we have too many people on the planet, and I think people should be more responsible about waiting until they're capable of providing for kids before they procreate them.

plus - contrary to you, will, and kerry - I think kids are neat.

Don't know about Will and Kerry, but you're wrong about me. I love kids.

Don't know about Will and Kerry, but you're wrong about me. I love kids.

Wrong on Will and Kerry too. Last week Will stated that the couple intended to adopt children. I would like to see a serious discussion of adoption. If preservation of the culture is an issue for "natalists," why isn't adoption of children from the USA, Asia, Africa and Latin America the answer? Why do couples need a fertility doctor when there are hundreds of millions of children living in extreme poverty and degradation? Why isn't Madonna the poster babe for Right to Life groups? Adoption, when it doesn't infringe on birth parents' rights would seem to address any "panic" issues. Is the panic biological fertility or does it really have something to do with children and their lives?

Wonderment:

Why isn't Madonna the poster babe for Right to Life groups?

Because Angelina Jolie already got that gig. But seriously, I'm with you on this one -- I'd much rather see programs that encourage adoption than programs that push natalism.

1) "too many" people for what? our current technologies and political arrangements? definitely. However, i think we will continue technological advancement. And it is obvious that the systems in place now squander many resources. there is enough food to feed everybody - its just not in the right places at the right times. that can be changed. 2) If intelligent, responsible people stop having kids to save the planet, while others do not - can this possibly have a long term benefit? I somehow think not. 2) so - you oppose policies that make childbearing a reasonable economic choice for most people and want to limit it to the people that can "afford" it. of course, i forgot, poor people don't deserve the joys of family and child rearing. a tad bit elitist, no? 3) i should clarify - I think creating and caring for children is neat. not just looking at them from afar and thinking - "neat". however, i understand this to be my own personal trip and don't think everyone should think this way.

Quoting popcorn_karate: 1) "too many" people for what? our current technologies and political arrangements?

Those, too, yes. But I am more concerned about the fouling-our-nest problem. Even if we were able to wave a magic wand and remove the barriers that hamper food distribution, the fact remains that seven billion people demand more resources and generate more wastes than the planet appears to be able to handle. We've wiped out large numbers of food species just from overfishing. Perhaps even more telling, we've polluted the oceans and the rivers in America so badly that there are federal guidelines on how many fish it's safe to eat. We're slashing and burning enormous tracts of forest just to make more grazing space for cattle. Our air is making ever more people sick, and that's just here in the US. I can't even imagine what it must be like to live in a Chinese city. And to other air pollution problems, add in global warming. And then on top of that, consider the scarcity of energy and mineral resources. How many wars are being fought, and how many unsavory regimes are being propped up, just because of strong desires for

But yes. I do think that it would be a good thing if people waited until they were ready, financially, to have children.

Kerry and Will discussed how going from poverty to wealth reduces birth rates. The problem seems to arise when rich nations go into "fertility panic." Their citizens will continue to advocate for Haiti and Bangladesh to lower their birth rates, but they become concerned about their own society with fewer children and a potential decline in their own culture. Things go insane in societies like Israel where demographic competition between two groups that despise each other comes into play, but other societies like Spain and Switzerland where several minority cultures are all rich and semi-autonomous may develop better strategies to encourage enough births but not too many. Will and Kerry tried to explore the kind of underpopulation strategies that would not be sexist or otherwise coercive, but everyone agrees that overpopulation becomes less of a problem as poverty is reduced. What the right-wing natalists and nativists seem to be all up in arms about is an invasion of Mexicans (here) and

yes - counting to four has been a problem for me at times ; ). and major bonus points for alluding to Trantor - from one of the best series ever, in my opinion, and I agree that i don't want to live there. Geography matters. where the people are. how they are educated. what their cultural inheritances are. All of these matter. You can't look at the world as an aggregate when dealing with population and expect to solve very many problems. like the food issue - there is enough , just not in the right places - so just an increase in production won't do much good. so it is with population, you can't solve the population "problem" by reducing growth in the areas with declining or stable populations. As a geographer, the problems with averages and inappropriate scales are often apparent - think elevation and drainages, or vegetation and fire, or most any continuous variable across a landscape..The scale that you map the variable determines its utility in dealing with an issue. Nano-technology is another obvious places where scale makes an incredible difference in how things behave and interact. I think it is important to

Virtually all welfare programs in the US are natalist policies. The more babies you have, the more free money you get. In the state where I live you essentially cannot get welfare no matter how poor you are unless you have children. But if you do have them, you can earn up to $65,000 a year and still qualify for welfare. So they are taking money out of the paychecks of people who make $10,000 a year and have no children, then giving it to people who make $65,000 a year.

Virtually all welfare programs in the US are natalist policies. The more babies you have, the more free money you get. In the state where I live you essentially cannot get welfare no matter how poor you are unless you have children. But if you do have them, you can earn up to $65,000 a year and still qualify for welfare. So they are taking money out of the paychecks of people who make $10,000 a year and have no children, then giving it to people who make $65,000 a year.

Hey, I have an idea. Let's let the kids just die of hunger and disease. That'll teach 'em.

You guys are all so serious. I can't believe no one has pointed out that this was the sweetest diavlog ever! I especially liked the point where Kerry comes creeping into Will's frame. What a sweet couple. Am I allowed to say that around here? Am I lowering the tone?

But Kerry there are no "bad mothers" in Gloucester, Mass.
While you and Will and an army of like-minded intellectuals dither, dozens of armies of fourteen year-old girls will be group scrapbooking the lives of the babies who will indeed eventually wrestle the power away from the Clenis & Dubya types - skipping right over future, childless, Arizona-retirement-community-dwelling-WillManyDogs. Gen X? More like Gen X'd-out! Importantly, does Iowa City have convenient facilities so that The Lovely Kerry Howley will continue to appear
on Red Eye w/ The Cheerily Chatty Troll?